Verification of ensemble flow forecasts for the River Rhine

被引：61

作者：

Renner, M. ^{[1
]}

Werner, M. G. F. ^{[2
,3
]}

Rademacher, S. ^{[4
]}

Sprokkereef, E. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Tech Univ Dresden, Fac Forestry Geosci & Hydrosci, Inst Hydrol & Meteorol, D-01062 Dresden, Germany

[2] Deltares Delft Hydraul, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands

[3] UNESCO IHE, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands

[4] Fed Inst Hydrol, D-56068 Koblenz, Germany

[5] Ctr Water Management, NL-8224 AD Lelystad, Netherlands

来源：

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY | 2009年 / 376卷 / 3-4期

关键词：

Hydrologic ensemble forecasting; Probabilistic verification; River Rhine; ECMWF-EPS; COSMO-LEPS; HBV; PREDICTION SYSTEMS; WEATHER PREDICTION; PERFORMANCE; METHODOLOGY; VALIDATION; EVENTS; ECMWF; BASIN;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.059

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

Ensemble stream flow predictions obtained by forcing rainfall-runoff models with probabilistic weather forecasting products are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this paper the performance of ensemble flow forecasts at various stations in the Rhine basin are studied by the means of probabilistic verification statistics. When compared to climatology positive skill scores are found at all river gauges for lead times of up to 9 days, thus proving the medium-range flow forecasts to be useful. A preliminary comparison between the low resolution ECMWF-EPS forecast and the high-resolution COSMO-LEPS forecast products shows that downscaling of global meteorological forecast products is recommended before use in forcing rainfall-runoff models in flow forecasting. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：463 / 475

页数：13

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