Rate parameter uncertainty effects in assessing stratospheric ozone depletion by supersonic aviation

Box model sensitivity-uncertainty calculations for O-3 depletion from supersonic aircraft emissions were performed at the most perturbed locale using localized outputs of the LLNL 2-D diurnally averaged assessment model. Processes controlling N2O5, catalytic O-3 loss steps O+NO2 and HO2+O-3, HOx sink reactions OH+ HNO3/HNO4, and the O+O-2 recombination that forms O-3 are identified as the dominant photochemical uncertainty sources, Guided by local sensitivities, 2-D model runs were repeated with 9 targeted input parameters altered to 1/3 of their 1-sigma uncertainties to put error-bounds on the predicted O-3 change, Results indicate these kinetic errors can cause the predicted local O-3 loss of 1.5% to be uncertain by up to 3% in regions of large aircraft NOx injection.