Global sea level linked to global temperature

被引：708

作者：

Vermeer, Martin ^{[1
]}

Rahmstorf, Stefan ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Aalto Univ, Dept Surveying, FI-02150 Espoo, Finland

[2] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2009年 / 106卷 / 51期

基金：

芬兰科学院;

关键词：

global warming; projections; climate; ocean;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.0907765106

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880-2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990-2100.

引用

页码：21527 / 21532

页数：6