Estimation and medium-term forecasting of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane emission in Russia with statistical methods

被引：8

作者：

Samoilov, I. A. ^{[1
]}

Nakhutin, A. I. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Roshydromet & Russian Acad Sci, Inst Global Climate & Ecol, Moscow 107258, Russia

来源：

RUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY | 2009年 / 34卷 / 06期

关键词：

Statistical methods - Carbon dioxide - Gas emissions - Greenhouse gases - Economic and social effects;

D O I：

10.3103/S1068373909060028

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

A statistical method of estimation and medium-term forecasting of greenhouse gas emission is under consideration. It is shown that availability of significant enough and stable statistical relationships between greenhouse gas emission and a number of indicators of the economy development allows operational estimating and forecasting of greenhouse gas emission in the Russian economy with a lead-time out to several years. It is possible to estimate and forecast both the total emission of all greenhouse gasses in terms of CO2-equivalent and emission of particular greenhouse gases in different sectors of economy. Both miacroeconomic and industrial indicators of the economy development can be used as predictors for building regression forecasting models.

引用

页码：348 / 353

页数：6