Model Predictive Control for Stochastic Resource Allocation

In this paper, we consider a class of stochastic resource allocation problems where resources assigned to a task may fail probabilistically to complete assigned tasks. Failures to complete a task are observed before new resource allocations are selected. The resulting temporal resource allocation problem is a stochastic control problem, with a discrete state space and control space that grow in cardinality exponentially with the number of tasks. We modify this optimal control problem by expanding the admissible control space, and show that the resulting control problem can be solved exactly by efficient algorithms in time that grows nearly linear with the number of tasks. The approximate control problem also provides a bound on the achievable performance for the original control problem. The approximation is used as part of a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm to generate resource allocations over time in response to information on task completion status. We show in computational experiments that, for single resource class problems, the resulting MPC algorithm achieves nearly the same performance as the optimal dynamic programming algorithm while reducing computation time by over four orders of magnitude. In multiple resource class experiments involving 1000 tasks, the model predictive control performance is within 4% of the performance bound obtained by the solution of the expanded control space problem.