Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

被引:13
作者
Barnett, AG [1 ]
Dobson, AJ [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Queensland, Sch Populat Hlth, Herston, Qld 4006, Australia
关键词
time series; trend; seasonality; state space model; WHO MONICA Project; coronary heart disease;
D O I
10.1002/sim.1927
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
引用
收藏
页码:3505 / 3523
页数:19
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