Central fat predicts deterioration of insulin secretion index and fasting glycaemia: 6-year follow-up of subjects at varying risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus

Aims To examine the relationships between body composition and changes in fasting glycaemia, and in indices of insulin secretion and insulin action over 6 years in females with a family history of Type 2 diabetes with or without prior gestational diabetes ('at risk' group, AR) and control females (control group, C). Methods At baseline and at follow-up, an oral glucose tolerance test and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry assessment of body composition were performed. Indices of insulin resistance (HOMA R') and insulin secretion (HOMA beta') were obtained from fasting insulin and glucose concentrations. Results At baseline, the groups were similar for age, body mass index, fasting levels of plasma glucose and insulin, HOMA R' and HOMA beta'. Despite similar total body fatness, AR had significantly greater waist circumference and central fat (both P < 0.02) compared with C. At follow-up there was a significant increase in central adiposity only in AR, and the fasting plasma glucose (FPG) level was higher in AR compared with C (5.0 +/- 0.2 vs. 4.3 +/- 0.2 mmol/l, P = 0.02). This rise in plasma glucose in AR was related to a decline in HOMA beta' (r = 0.45, P = 0.0065). Both the baseline and the increments in total and central abdominal fat mass were associated with the time-related decline in HOMA beta'. Conclusions Six years after initial assessment, AR showed deterioration in FPG levels due predominantly to a decline in insulin secretion index without major change in insulin resistance index. Importantly, baseline body fatness (especially central adiposity), as well as increases in fatness with time, were the major predictors of the subsequent decline of insulin secretion index and the consequent rise in FPG.