Analysis on energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy and China Dream target

被引：52

作者：

Li Ji-Feng ^{[1
]}

Ma Zhong-Yu ^{[1
]}

Zhang Ya-Xiong ^{[1
]}

Wen Zhi-Chao ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] State Informat Ctr, Policy Simulat Lab, Beijing 100045, Peoples R China

[2] Renmin Univ China, Sch Environm & Nat Resources, Beijing 100872, Peoples R China

来源：

ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH | 2018年 / 9卷 / 01期

基金：

国家重点研发计划; 中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

China energy strategy; China Dream strategy; CO2 emission pathway; Energy demand and supply model; VEHICLE OWNERSHIP;

D O I：

10.1016/j.accre.2018.01.001

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A quantitative model was applied to analyze the energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030) and long-term economic and social development target China Dream. Results showed that 1) toward the 2050 China Dream target, total final energy consumption is expected to peak at 3.9 Gtce in 2030 and remain stable until 2050, whereas total primary energy consumption is expected to reach an upper platform by 2040 and around 5.8 Gtce by 2050; 2) the proportion of non-fossil fuels is expected to reach approximately 50% and that of natural gas to reach more than 16% by 2050; 3) CO2 emissions from energy use are expected to peak at 9.6 Gt by no later than 2030 and then gradually decline to 6.7 Gt by 2050.

引用

页码：16 / 26

页数：11

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