Left turn in Europe? Reactions to austerity and the EMU

Several important changes have occurred in the European Union (EU) over the course of the last decade. In particular, the Maastricht Treaty criteria for entry into the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) brought economic austerity across the member states, in spite of high levels of unemployment in the region. At the same time an electoral shift resulted in parties of the left holding government positions in 13 of 15 member states, a marked contrast to the recent past. We examine if recent electoral fluctuations can be attributed to the traditional explanations of economic voting and anti-incumbency or if there is evidence of a fundamental shift in the electoral arena following the passage of the Maastricht Treaty. Using pooled cross-sectional data for the years 1983-1998, we find that for both EMU members and non-members traditional forces help explain electoral outcomes, however an indicator for the squeeze of the post-Maastricht time period also plays a significant role. While left parties have fared well in the post-Maastricht period, the strong, negative effect of incumbency, persistent unemployment, and an overall increase in electoral volatility make any conclusions of a left turn in the member states of the EU premature. Rather, it is likely left parties will find themselves faced with the difficult task of maintaining support while abiding by the constraints imposed by the Maastricht Treaty.