Religious mobility and party support in Northern Ireland

Although religion has long played an influential role in the structuring of electoral choice, the relationship between religious mobility and party preference has been almost totally ignored by both political scientists and sociologists of religion. Similarly, while much empirical research has focused on the effects of mobility on political behaviour all have restricted their analysis to the link between class mobility and individual political preferences or vote. This paper examines the impact of religious mobility on party preferences within Northern Ireland. The results show that the association between political party preference and religion is remarkably strong. There is a virtual absence of inter-sectarian party preferences (Protestants supporting Nationalist, and Catholics supporting Unionist, parties) and of inter-sectarian religious mobility. Because almost everyone in Northern Ireland was raised as a Catholic or Protestant, this leads to very limited patterns of religious mobility. However, we find that mobility of Protestants into the None, or religiously non-affiliated, group is associated with increased support for the major non-sectarian party and for less extreme sectarian party support. The implications of these findings for a political settlement within Northern Ireland are discussed.