Black spruce (Picea mariana) is the most abundant tree species in the boreal biome. but little is known about how climate warming may change recruitment in peatlands, especially those affected by permafrost thaw. We used results from a seven-year study in northern Manitoba, Canada, to address the following questions: (1) What is the relative importance of early life history transitions oil P. mariana recruitment? (2) How are these transitions mediated by biological and environmental factors, including competition, facilitation, disease, herbivory, water table depth, and soil nutrients'? (3) Do interactions among these factors create additional recruitment limitations beyond those imposed by environmental factors changing with climate warming, Such as hydrology? Seed rain was measured over six years on forested permafrost plateaus and in neighboring collapse sear bogs. Seed germination and seedling survival' and growth were measured over 4-5 years in collapse scars and assessed across a three-level water table treatment. Survival and growth experiments examined additional combinations of above- and belowground vascular plant competition and fertilizer addition. Results showed that failure of germination and survival on growing moss surfaces and reduced survival of seedlings in wetter microsites were primary constraints. Seed influx was significantly lower in collapse scars but likely did not limit recruitment. Biological and environmental factors mediating these life history transitions also differed in relative importance, and interactions among them tended to amplify recruitment limitation. Seedling survival was most strongly controlled by fast-growing mosses in wet microsites but also was influenced by apparent drowning, in wet plots, herbivory, and loss of foliage caused by a fungal pathogen. Seedling growth was strongly controlled by water table depth, nutrient and competition levels, and fungal pathogens. Multiple, interacting factors will affect P. mariana establishment in boreal peatlands during climate warming. Generalizations about recruitment relying on few environmental gradients sensitive to climate change, such as water table, may therefore not fully capture the complexities of establishment.
