Will China's water shortage shake the world's food security?

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the long-term relationship between China's grain output and its use of irrigation water. It shows that over the last 30 years, China has maintained an increase in grain output while irrigation water withdrawal has been decreasing. Irrigation water use was not significantly correlated with grain output due to the greater offsetting effect of prices and cropping area. Although China's agricultural water use will continue to dwindle, there is no reason to expect that water productivity increases cannot continue to keep pace. This is no excuse for complacency, however.