Epidemics with multistrain interactions: The interplay between cross immunity and antibody-dependent enhancement

被引：33

作者：

Bianco, Simone ^{[1
]}

Shaw, Leah B. ^{[1
]}

Schwartz, Ira B. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Coll William & Mary, Dept Appl Sci, Williamsburg, VA 23187 USA

[2] USN, Res Lab, Nonlinear Syst Dynam Sect, Div Plasma Phys, Washington, DC 20375 USA

来源：

CHAOS | 2009年 / 19卷 / 04期

关键词：

DENGUE VIRUS SEROTYPES; TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS; STRAINS; COEXISTENCE; PERSISTENCE; INFECTION; INFLUENZA; BANGKOK; DISEASE; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1063/1.3270261

中图分类号：

O29 [应用数学];

学科分类号：

070104 ;

摘要：

This paper examines the interplay of the effect of cross immunity and antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in multistrain diseases. Motivated by dengue fever, we study a model for the spreading of epidemics in a population with multistrain interactions mediated by both partial temporary cross immunity and ADE. Although ADE models have previously been observed to cause chaotic outbreaks, we show analytically that weak cross immunity has a stabilizing effect on the system. That is, the onset of disease fluctuations requires a larger value of ADE with small cross immunity than without. However, strong cross immunity is shown numerically to cause oscillations and chaotic outbreaks even for low values of ADE. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3270261]

引用

页数：9

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