The implications of climate change on floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers in Bangladesh

被引:122
作者
Mirza, MMQ
Warrick, RA
Ericksen, NJ
机构
[1] Univ Toronto, Environm Canada, Inst Environm Studies, Adapt & Impacts Res Grp, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada
[2] Univ Waikato, Int Global Change Inst, Hamilton, New Zealand
关键词
Climate Change; General Circulation Model; River Discharge; Change Scenario; Climate Change Scenario;
D O I
10.1023/A:1022825915791
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Climate change in the future would have implications for river discharges in Bangladesh. In this article, possible changes in the magnitude, extent and depth of floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers in Bangladesh were assessed using a sequence of empirical models and the MIKE11-GIS hydrodynamic model. Climate change scenarios were constructed from the results of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) - CSIRO9, UKTR, GFDL and LLNL, which demonstrate a range of uncertainties. Changes in magnitude, depth and extent of flood discharge vary considerably between the GCMs. Future changes in the peak discharge of the Ganges River are expected to be higher than those for the Brahmaputra River. Peak discharge of the Meghna River may also increase considerably. As a result, significant changes in the spatial extent and depths of inundation in Bangladesh may occur. Faster changes in inundation are expected at low temperature increases than of higher temperature changes. Changes in land inundation categories may introduce substantial changes in rice agriculture and cropping patterns in Bangladesh. Reduction of increased flood hazard due to climate change requires strengthening of flood management policies and adaptation measures in Bangladesh.
引用
收藏
页码:287 / 318
页数:32
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