Trends of climatic potential and on-farm yields of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic Plains

Rice and wheat are the two most important cereals in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and are responsible for the food security of the region. To understand the productivity trends in the transects of the IGP: (1) the climatic potential yields of rice and wheat were simulated using a crop simulation modeling approach and (2) the long-term trends of potential and on-farm yields were compared. The potential yields of rice and wheat in the IGP ranged from 7.7 to 10.7 and 5.2 to 7.9 Mg ha(-1), respectively. The upper transects of the IGP are more productive and yield decreases by 27% for rice and by 32% for wheat from transect 2 to transect 5. The rate of change in the potential yield trend of rice from 1985 to 2000 ranged from -0.12 to 0.05 Mg ha(-1) per year. Negative yield trends were observed at six of the nine sites, four of which were statistically significant (P < 0.05). The decrease in radiation and increase in minimum temperature were the reasons for the yield decline. The potential yield trend of wheat, however, appeared to be stable. On-farm yields of rice also showed a negative trend but for wheat the trend was mostly positive. The adverse changes in the weather parameters and declining trends of potential and on-farm yields of rice should be taken as an indication of a future problem. Regular on-farm monitoring of crops and climatic factors is urgently needed for predicting problems and allowing measures to be taken to improve productivity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.