A probabilistic model for chloride-ingress and initiation of corrosion in reinforced concrete structures

Corrosion of the reinforcement is a major problem for a large number of reinforced concrete structures because it can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiation is that the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a critical threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model by which the chloride content in a reinforced concrete structure can be predicted, is developed. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of measurements. The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion can now be estimated by traditional FORM/SORM-analysis. The model can also be used to determine optimal repair and maintenance strategies. In a number of examples these applications are illustrated. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.