A simple method for estimating excess mortality due to heat waves, as applied to the 2006 California heat wave

被引：41

作者：

Hoshiko, Sumi ^{[1
]}

English, Paul ^{[1
]}

Smith, Daniel ^{[1
]}

Trent, Roger ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Calif Dept Publ Hlth, Environm Hlth Invest Branch, Richmond, CA 94804 USA

[2] Calif Dept Publ Hlth, Epidemiol & Prevent Injury Control Branch, Sacramento, CA USA

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH | 2010年 / 55卷 / 02期

关键词：

Climate change; Global warming; Heat wave; Mortality; Monitoring; Surveillance;

D O I：

10.1007/s00038-009-0060-8

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

To characterize excess mortality during a major heat wave in California and its regions; to assess the validity of a simple method. We calculated mortality rate ratios for the heat-wave period, using a reference period of the same number of days from the same summer. We conducted alternative analyses and compared our results with those from a time-series model. We estimated 655 excess deaths, a 6% increase (95% confidence interval, 3-9%), impacting varied geographic/climate regions. Alternate analyses supported model validity. California experienced excess heat-wave related mortality not restricted to high heat regions. As climate change is anticipated to increase heat events, public health efforts to monitor effects assume greater importance.

引用

页码：133 / 137

页数：5

共 14 条

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