Stochastic modelling of direct costs of pancreas disease (PD) in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)

被引:69
作者
Aunsmo, Arnfinn [1 ,2 ]
Valle, Paul Steinar [3 ]
Sandberg, Marianne
Midtlyng, Paul Johan
Bruheim, Torkjel [4 ]
机构
[1] Norwegian Sch Vet Sci, Dept Prod Anim Clin Sci, N-0033 Oslo, Norway
[2] SalMar Farming AS, N-7266 Kverva, Norway
[3] Molde Univ Coll, N-6402 Molde, Norway
[4] Natl Vet Inst, N-7485 Trondheim, Norway
关键词
Pancreas disease; Direct cost; Stochastic model; Cost of disease; Atlantic salmon; Aquaculture; RISK;
D O I
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.10.001
中图分类号
S85 [动物医学(兽医学)];
学科分类号
090604 [动物药学];
摘要
An economic model for estimating the direct costs of disease in industrial aquaculture was developed to include the following areas: biological losses, extraordinary costs, costs of treatment, costs of prevention and insurance pay-out. Direct costs of a pancreas disease (PD) outbreak in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon were estimated in the model, using probability distributions for the biological losses and expenditures associated with the disease. The biological effects of PD on mortality, growth, feed conversion and carcass quality and their correlations, together with costs of prevention were established using elicited data from an expert panel, and combined with basal losses in a control model. Extraordinary costs and costs associated with treatment were collected through a questionnaire sent to staff managing disease outbreaks. Norwegian national statistics for 2007 were used for prices and production costs in the model. Direct costs associated with a PD-outbreak in a site stocked with 500,000 smolts (vs. a similar site without the disease) were estimated to NOK (Norwegian kroner) 14.4 million (5% and 95% percentile: 10.5 and 17.8) (NOK=(sic)0.12 or $0.17 for 2007). Production was reduced to 70% (5% and 95% percentile: 57% and 81%) saleable biomass. and at an increased production cost of NOK 6.0 per kg (5% and 95% percentile: 3.5 and 8.7). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:233 / 241
页数:9
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