Predictive factors of response to cisplatin-based chemotherapy and the relation of response to survival in patients with metastatic urothelial cancer

Purpose: To identify pretreatment variables predicting overall and complete response to cisplatin-based chemotherapy for metastatic urothelial cancer, and to study the relation between response and the duration of survival. Patients and methods: A total of 119 evaluable patients with recurrent locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer received cisplatin-based combination chemotherapy in four consecutive phase II studies from 1987 to 1997. The relationship of pre treatment variables and response was evaluated with logistic regression, and prognostic factors for survival were analyzed with Cox's multivariate model. Results: Response was achieved in 49% of the patients with a complete response rate of 15%. Good performance status and absence of bone metastases were independently predictive of overall response. Good performance status and normal hemoglobin were independently predictive of complete response. Median survival was 8.9 months. Performance status, alkaline phosphatase, s-creatinine, liver and bone metastases were independent prognostic factors for survival. Median survival was 12.4 months in responding patients and 6.3 in nonresponding patients. Response to chemotherapy was included in the multivariate model and was the strongest prognostic factor for survival. Conclusion: The presence of bone metastases, low hemoglobin or poor performance status predicts decreased chance of response to chemotherapy. Response to chemotherapy is an independent prognostic factor for prolonged survival in patients with metastatic urothelial cancer.