Prognostic significance and risk factors of untreated cytomegalovirus viremia in liver transplant recipients

To study whether cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia is a reliable marker of impending CMV disease and thus a guide for preemptive antiviral therapy, 126 consecutive liver transplant recipients were followed by routine CMV blood cultures in the absence of antiviral prophylaxis or treatment for viremia, Seventy-three patients (58%) developed CMV infections, and 36 (29%) had more than one infection episode: 29 patients (23%) had organ involvement and 45 (36%) had viremia. Within a same episode, CMV viremia was 90% sensitive and 80% specific for predicting concurrent organ involvement but preceded organ involvement in only 9 (31%) of 29 patients. In a separate analysis, untreated isolated CMV viremia in the first CMV infection episode was followed by organ involvement in a subsequent episode in 9 (33%) of 28 patients, mainly in the donor-positive, recipient-negative (D+/R-) population. The results indicate that CMV viremia is not an ideal marker to guide preemptive antiviral treatment in liver transplant recipients but is a good marker in D+/R-patients.