Electric power requirement in the United States for large-scale production of hydrogen fuel

Long-term growth in substitution of hydrogen for fossil fuels in motor vehicles will require a significant increase in the rate of adding electric power generating facilities in the United States, where the number of vehicles is estimated to reach about 250 million by 2010. Electrolysis of water may become the primary means to produce hydrogen in sufficient quantity for so large a vehicle fleet. Estimation of the increased annual electric energy requirement to sustain long-term growth of adequate hydrogen fuel production was made in two time sequences with the use of a dynamic model. In the first sequence, from 1995 to 2010, when a fuel-cell engine vehicle industry is likely to expand rapidly, extrapolation of historic data on US population, vehicle, and energy statistics from Federal agencies provides the initial conditions for the year 2010 for the second time sequence. In the second sequence, the model examines a range of growth scenarios to the year 2050, when a significant fraction of the total United Slates vehicle fleet could be operated with hydrogen fuel. The results of the model calculations show that even with improved energy consumption efficiency of electrolytic production facilities, the additional electric energy demand to sustain replacement growth of hydrogen fuel in the fleet will require installation of significant;additional electric power generating capacity. (C) 2000 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.