Thyroid cancer incidence in the Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident: comparison with spontaneous incidences

The thyroid cancer incidence in the Ukraine among those born in the period 1968-1986 was analyzed with the aim to identify the enhancement due to the Chernobyl accident. Since any Ukrainian data referring to the time period before the accident are scarce and the variation of spontaneous incidences in other countries is immense, the Ukrainian incidences in the period 1986-1989 were used to estimate the baseline risk. Following 1990, the incidence in the southern part of the Ukraine increased by about 30%, independent of age. In the other parts the increase of the incidence depended on age at exposure. In the age group of 9-year-old children, the incidences in three regions defined as the 'high-dose area', the northern, and the middle oblasts, increased by factors of 50, 20, and 6, respectively. These rates (1991-1995) are well above spontaneous rates in other countries. In the age group of 17-year-old juveniles, the incidence increased by a factor of 6 for the 'high dose area' and in the three northern oblasts, whereas in the nine 'middle' oblasts it was similar to the incidence of the 'southern' Ukraine. These rates are within the range found in other countries.