ARIMA models to predict next-day electricity prices

被引：1204

作者：

Contreras, J ^{[1
]}

Espínola, R ^{[1
]}

Nogales, FJ ^{[1
]}

Conejo, AJ ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Castilla La Mancha, ETS Ingn Ind, E-13071 Ciudad Real, Spain

来源：

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS | 2003年 / 18卷 / 03期

关键词：

ARIMA models; electricity markets; forecasting; market clearing price; time series analysis;

D O I：

10.1109/TPWRS.2002.804943

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 [电气工程]; 0809 [电子科学与技术];

摘要：

Price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets. Both for spot markets and long-term contracts, price forecasts are necessary to develop bidding strategies or negotiation skills in order to maximize benefit. This paper provides a method to predict next-day electricity prices based on the ARIMA methodology. ARIMA techniques are used to analyze time series and, in the past, have been mainly used for load forecasting, due to their accuracy and mathematical soundness. A detailed explanation of the aforementioned ARIMA models and results from mainland Spain and Californian markets are presented.

引用

页码：1014 / 1020

页数：7

共 20 条

[1]

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