The 3-month clinical response to intravesical therapy as a predictive factor for progression in patients with high risk superficial bladder cancer

Purpose: We analyzed the 3-month clinical response to intravesical therapy as a factor predictive of progression in patients with high risk superficial bladder cancer. Material and Methods: We evaluated 191 patients with high risk superficial bladder cancer, 111 with secondary or associated bladder carcinoma in situ and 80 with stage T1 grade 3 disease who were treated with intravesical therapy. We considered only clinically complete and no responses at the 3-month endoscopic study. To determine the predictive value of the 3-month clinical response we differentiated progression into superficial and invasive types. Results: At a median followup of 73 months 91 patients (47.6%) had progression, which was superficial in 48 (25.1%) and invasive in 43 (22.5%). Invasive progression was associated with significantly higher cause specific mortality than superficial progression (p = 0). In the latter cases cause specific mortality was higher than in those without progression (p = 0.001). Although cystectomy significantly decreased the cause specific mortality rate in patients with invasive progression (p = 0.0001), this rate was high at 46.3%. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that the 3-month clinical response was a significant predictive factor for progression. Moreover, stratifying this variable showed that this response was the only independent factor predictive of invasive progression in cases of no response with stage T1 grade 3 tumor, bladder carcinoma in situ, or prostate mucosa or duct involvement (p = 0). In our series 41 patients (21.5%) did not respond after intravesical therapy at the 3-month evaluation, including 29 with stage T1 grade 3 disease, bladder carcinoma in situ, or prostate mucosa or duct involvement. Progression in 24 of these 29 patients (82.3%) was classified as invasive in 21 (73.6%). Conclusions: Invasive progression threatens the cause specific survival of patients with high risk superficial bladder cancer even when cystectomy is performed. The 3-month clinical response was an excellent predictive factor for invasive progression. Early cystectomy should be considered when stage T1 grade 3 tumor, bladder carcinoma in situ, or prostate mucosa or duct involvement is present at the 3-month clinical evaluation.