Predictors of smoking reduction among Blacks

Blacks who smoke have increased tobacco-related health risks. Cessation decreases the likelihood of many health problems. Smoking reduction may be important in the cessation process and potentially reduce health risks. Because little is known about specific predictors of smoking reduction, we investigated factors predicting reduction among Black light smokers enrolled in a 26-week cessation trial. Specifically, we compared (a) reducers (reduced cigarettes per day [cpd] >= 50%) with nonreducers and (b) reducers with quitters. Baseline demographic, smoking-related, and psychosocial variables were collected, and Week 26 smoking status was assessed. Among 539 participants, 41.0% (n = 221) reduced their smoking, 17.6% (n = 95) quit, and 41.4% (n = 223) did not reduce their smoking by >= 50%. In comparison with reducers, nonreducers were more likely to have their first cigarette within 30 min of waking (odds ratio [OR] = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.47-3.93), lower baseline cpd (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.77-0.93), higher baseline cotinine levels (OR = 1.002, 95% CI = 1.000-1.003), lower perceived stress (OR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.78-0.95), and higher Smoking Consequences Questionnaire (SCQ) negative social impression scores (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.06), after controlling for treatment arm, gender, and age. Significant predictors of smoking cessation versus reduction included lower baseline cpd (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.75-0.95), higher nicotine dependence (OR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.09-1.98), lower baseline cotinine levels (OR = 0.996, 95% CI = 0.994-0.998), higher body mass index (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01-1.08), lower perceived stress (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.72-0.95), and higher SCQ negative social impression scores (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01-1.08). Distinct predictors are associated with different trajectories of smoking behavior change (i.e., reduction vs. cessation vs. no change).