The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020

被引：81

作者：

Moller, H.

Fairley, L.

Coupland, V.

Okello, C.

Green, M.

Forman, D.

Moller, B.

Bray, F.

机构：

[1] Kings Coll London, Thames Canc Registry, London SE1 3QD, England

[2] No & Yorkshire Canc Registry & Informat Serv, Leeds LS16 6QB, W Yorkshire, England

[3] Dept Hlth, Stand & Qual Analyt Team, London SE1 8UG, England

[4] Canc Registry Norway, N-0310 Oslo, Norway

来源：

BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER | 2007年 / 96卷 / 09期

关键词：

epidemiology; projections; burden of disease; England;

D O I：

10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746

中图分类号：

R73 [肿瘤学];

学科分类号：

100214 ;

摘要：

We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974-2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224 000 in 2001 to 299 000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.

引用

页码：1484 / 1488

页数：5

共 19 条

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