End use analysis: issues and lessons

Methodologies for end use analysis have been developed by different researchers in the energy and water fields and in different areas in the world over the last 20 years. While there are care features associated with the methodologies and models used, the differences ran provide insight into the ways that they might be improved, as well as the differences that may be required in different regions and when models are used for different purposes. In addition to reviewing the field of end use analysis and appliance stock models, this paper will focus on two case studies. The first is the Sydney Water End Use Model, developed as part of the Sydney Water Least Cost Planning Study. This model has been developed and used to project the demand for water in Sydney over the next 20 years under business as usual scenario, as well as allow the projection of a number of scenarios which include major investment in water efficiency and effluent reuse programs as well as regulatory options to improve the efficiency of water using appliances in stalled in new buildings. Key features of the Sydney Water End Use Model include the fact that it takes into account the fact that the efficiency of toilets in Australia has a much larger range than (say) the US, in that the dual flush toilet was introduced in (to date) three stages. The model also accounts for projections of demographic and land use change which has been particularly dramatic in Sydney, particularly the movement to smaller occupancy rates in dwellings, and towards multi-family residential dwellings. The second case study will demonstrate the linkages between end use modeling of energy using and water using appliances. A model of residential energy use in Australia has been developed as part of a research project to develop greenhouse abatement scenario for Australia and many of the appliances modeled overlap with the water end use model, including clothes washing machines, dishwashers, showerheads and taps. This more recent modeling exercise has revealed the importance of key assumptions in standard stock modeling techniques, and highlighted the need for earlier starting dates for stock modeling. The process and results of these two case studies will be presented, and conclusions drawn about further improvements in end use analysis for both water and energy use. The linkage between the use of backcasting as a planning tool, and the use of end use analysis as a pre-requisite for the development of a demand management program is highlighted.