Predictors of poor renal outcome in patients with biopsy-proven lupus nephritis

Aim: The development of lupus nephritis (LN) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. In view of scarce data from South Africa on factors affecting renal outcome in LN, the authors' experience was reviewed to identify predictors of poor renal outcome. Methods: This is a retrospective review of 105 patients with biopsy-proven LN under our care from January 1995 to December 2007. Results: Forty-three (41.0%) patients reached the composite end-point of persistent doubling of the serum creatinine over the baseline value, development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death during a mean follow-up period of 51.1 months (range 1-137 months). Baseline factors associated with the composite end-point included presence of systemic hypertension (P = 0.016), mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) (P = 0.004), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (P = 0.001), mean serum creatinine (P = 0.001), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (P = 0.003) and diffuse proliferative glomerulonephritis (World Health Organization class IV) (P = 0.024). Interstitial inflammation (P = 0.049), failure of remission in the first year following therapy (P < 0.001), the mean SBP on follow up (P < 0.001) and mean DBP on follow up (P < 0.001) were also associated with composite end-point. On multivariate analysis, baseline serum creatinine, non-remission following therapy (P = 0.038) and mean SBP on follow up (P = 0.016) were predictors of poor renal outcome. Conclusion: Baseline serum creatinine, failure of remission in the first year and mean SBP were predictors of poor renal outcome.