Impact caps: why population, affluence and technology strategies should be abandoned

This paper classifies strategies to reduce environmental impact according to the terms of the I = PAT formula. Policies limiting resource depletion and pollution (Impact) - by heavily taxing resources or rationing them on a country basis - are thus called 'direct' or 'left-side' strategies. Other policies to achieve the environmental goal of lowering Impact strive to limit Population and Affluence, or to use Technology to lower the ratio of resource inputs to goods-and-services outputs. Next it is shown that lowering any of these 'right-side' factors causes or at least enables the other two to rise or 'rebound'. This has two consequences: 1) Since I = PAT does not express these interdependencies on the right side, it is more accurately written I =f(P,A,T); and 2) Success in lowering any of the right-side factors does not necessarily lower Impact. Rationing or Pigouvian taxation of resources or pollution, on the other hand, necessarily lower impact and are therefore preferable to population, consumption and technological environmental strategies. Finally, lifestyle and technology changes towards more sufficiency and efficiency would follow the caps as consumers and producers work to retain the greatest amount of welfare within the limits given. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.