Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts

被引:3602
作者
Easterling, DR
Meehl, GA
Parmesan, C
Changnon, SA
Karl, TR
Mearns, LO
机构
[1] NOAA, Natl Climate Data Ctr, Asheville, NC 28801 USA
[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80303 USA
[3] Univ Texas, Austin, TX 78712 USA
[4] Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL 61820 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1126/science.289.5487.2068
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas That have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures. decreases in extreme Low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions, distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently gradual biological changes are Linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events.
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页码:2068 / 2074
页数:7
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