Remarks on the application of the analytic hierarchy process to judgmental forecasting

被引：35

作者：

Belton, V

Goodwin, P

机构：

[1] UNIV W ENGLAND,DEPT MATH SCI,BRISTOL BS16 1QY,AVON,ENGLAND

[2] UNIV STRATHCLYDE,DEPT MANAGEMENT SCI,GLASGOW G1 1BA,LANARK,SCOTLAND

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 1996年 / 12卷 / 01期

关键词：

judgmental forecasting; decomposition; AHP;

D O I：

10.1016/0169-2070(95)00643-5

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) has been proposed as a method for improving judgmental forecasts. This paper argues that some applications of the method are ill founded because they involve the inappropriate weighting of the factors which will influence the forecast variable and do not permit the modelling of situations where these factors operate to their fullest extent at the same time. Modifications to the method are proposed.

引用

收藏

页码：155 / 161

页数：7

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