It had to turn out that way: Hindsight bias in the German parliamentary elections in 1998

被引:5
作者
Blank, H
Fischer, V
机构
[1] Univ Leipzig, Inst Allgemeine Psychol, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany
[2] Hannover Med Sch, D-30623 Hannover, Germany
来源
ZEITSCHRIFT FUR SOZIALPSYCHOLOGIE | 2000年 / 31卷 / 03期
关键词
hindsight bias; political elections; cognitive illusions;
D O I
10.1024//0044-3514.31.3.128
中图分类号
B84 [心理学];
学科分类号
04 [教育学]; 0402 [心理学];
摘要
Three months before the German parliamentary elections in 1998, University of Leipzig psychology undergraduates predicted the percentage of votes for various parties and also the winning coalition. Remembered predictions one month after the elections were systematically biased towards the actual outcome. Additionally, knowledge about the election outcome was biased in the direction of the original judgments. On the group level, remembered predictions of the winning coalition exhibited clear tendencies towards simplification and polarization. A comparison with existing studies of the hindsight bias in political elections, using a common index, revealed the largest effect to date for our own study. Specific cognitive and motivational processes at work in political hindsight biases as well as a possible dissociation of different components of a "hindsight syndrome" are discussed.
引用
收藏
页码:128 / 142
页数:15
相关论文
共 27 条
[1]
[Anonymous], [No title captured]
[2]
Bartlett F. C., 1932, REMEMBERING STUDY EX, DOI 10.1111/j.2044-8279.1933.tb02913.x
[3]
MOTIVATIONAL INTERPRETATIONS OF HINDSIGHT BIAS - AN INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCE ANALYSIS [J].
CAMPBELL, JD ;
TESSER, A .
JOURNAL OF PERSONALITY, 1983, 51 (04) :605-620
[4]
CHRISTIANSEN C, 1991, OSTEOPOROSIS INT, V1, P7
[5]
LEVELS OF PROCESSING - FRAMEWORK FOR MEMORY RESEARCH [J].
CRAIK, FIM ;
LOCKHART, RS .
JOURNAL OF VERBAL LEARNING AND VERBAL BEHAVIOR, 1972, 11 (06) :671-684
[6]
Ebbinghaus H., 1885, UBER DAS GEDACHTNIS
[7]
Decomposing the hindsight bias: A multinomial processing tree model for separating recollection and reconstruction in hindsight [J].
Erdfelder, E ;
Buchner, A .
JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY-LEARNING MEMORY AND COGNITION, 1998, 24 (02) :387-414
[8]
FISCHER I, 1995, CONTRIBUTIONS TO DECISION MAKING - I, P193
[9]
FISCHER V, 1998, UNPUB POLITISCHES WU
[10]
HINDSIGHT NOT EQUAL TO FORESIGHT - EFFECT OF OUTCOME KNOWLEDGE ON JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY [J].
FISCHHOFF, B .
JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY-HUMAN PERCEPTION AND PERFORMANCE, 1975, 1 (03) :288-299