Detecting Atlantic MOC changes in an ensemble of climate change simulations

Signal- to- noise patterns for the meridional overturning circulation ( MOC) have been calculated for an ensemble of greenhouse scenario runs. The greenhouse- forced signal has been defined as the linear trend in ensemble- mean MOC, after year 2000. It consists of an overall decrease and shoaling of the MOC, with maximum amplitudes of 10 Sv ( Sv equivalent to 106 m(3) s(-1)) per century. In each member the internal variability is defined as the anomaly with respect to the ensemble- mean signal. The interannual variability of the MOC is dominated by a monopole with a maximum amplitude of 2 Sv at 40 degrees N. This variability appears to be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO), mainly through NAO- induced variations in the wind field. The signal- to- noise ratio was estimated for various time spans, all starting in 1950 or later. Different noise estimates were made, both with and without intra- annual variability, relevant for episodic and continuous monitoring, respectively, and with and without an estimate of the observational error. Detection of a greenhouse- forced MOC signal on the basis of episodic measurements is impossible before 2055. With continuous monitoring, detection becomes possible after 35 years of observation. The main motivation for calculating signal- to- noise ratios and detection times is their usefulness for local monitoring strategies and detection methods. The two- dimensional pattern of detection times of a MOC change supports the rationale for deploying a sustained monitoring array on at 26 degrees N.