Why risk analysis outperforms probabilistic choice as the effective decision support paradigm for power system planning

被引：78

作者：

Miranda, V ^{[1
]}

Proenca, LM

机构：

[1] Univ Macau, Fac Sci & Technol, Macau, Peoples R China

[2] INESC Macau, Inst Eng Sist Computadores Macau, Macau, Peoples R China

[3] Univ Porto, Fac Engn, DEEC FEUP, P-4000 Porto, Portugal

来源：

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS | 1998年 / 13卷 / 02期

关键词：

power system planning; risk analysis; probabilistic choice; decision making;

D O I：

10.1109/59.667394

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 ; 0809 ;

摘要：

This paper demonstrates that a classical stochastic optimization is, in many cases, not convenient for power system planning. Instead, a risk analysis approach is proposed. In a comparison of both planning paradigms, the probabilistic approach is in occasions not adequate, is half blind to compromise solutions and leads, in numerous, cases to riskier decisions. The technical discussion is illustrated with a distribution planning example.

引用

页码：643 / 648

页数：6