A Novel Affine Arithmetic Method to Solve Optimal Power Flow Problems With Uncertainties

An affine arithmetic (AA) method is proposed in this paper to solve the optimal power flow (OPF) problem with uncertain generation sources. In the AA-based OPF problem, all the state and control variables are treated in affine form, comprising a center value and the corresponding noise magnitudes, to represent forecast, model error, and other sources of uncertainty without the need to assume a probability density function (pdf). The proposed AA-based OPF problem is used to determine the operating margins of the thermal generators in systems with uncertain wind and solar generation dispatch. The AA-based approach is bench-marked against Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) intervals in order to determine its effectiveness. The proposed technique is tested and demonstrated on the IEEE 30-bus system and also a real 1211-bus European system.