Peach rusty spot epidemics: Temporal analysis and relationship to fruit growth

Incidence and severity of peach rusty spot were monitored throughout the growing seasons of 1999 to 2001. Graphical and statistical analysis revealed that disease increased from the shuck-off stage of fruit development until 60 days after full bloom; epidemics typically lasted from 17 to 30 days. An analysis of fruit growth indicated that the early-season epidemic coincided with the first stage of stone fruit development, physiologically characterized as the period of cell division. During this period, as fruit growth slowed and approached initiation of pit-hardening, the rate of disease increase slowed. Since fruit infection was greatest during the period of fruit growth, disease progression was modeled as a function of plant growth instead of time. Temporal analysis revealed that the logistic function was appropriate for describing both growth processes, and a synchronous logistic/logistic composite disease progression/fruit growth model was fit to all data sets. No change in disease levels occurred during midseason, which coincided with the second stage of fruit development, a period of slow growth. Subsequently, disease incidence and severity significantly declined on average by 26% and 1.3 lesions per fruit, respectively, during the 20 to 30 days prior to harvest. This decline phase coincided with the third stage of fruit growth, the period of cell enlargement and coloration. These disease reductions may be related to physical changes in fruit size and pigmentation, as opposed to resistance development, causing younger, less established lesions to become undetectable.