The short- and long-term effects of US migration experience on Mexican women's fertility

Using retrospective fertility and migration histories from a binational study of Mexico-U.S. migration, we test for the presence of separation, assimilation, adaptation, diffusion, and selectivity effects of migration on annual birth probabilities and completed fertility. Our results reveal that spousal separation due to temporary migration reduces birth probabilities in the short term but does not reduce marital fertility in the long term. However, when women migrate to the U.S. either as temporary migrants or as long-term settled migrants, their experiences lead to lower birth probabilities while in the U.S. as well as to fewer total births. By contrast, U.S. migration experience among men who return to Mexico is associated with higher marital fertility in Mexico, suggesting that temporary migrants are selected for higher fertility.