Chaos, persistence, and evolution of strain structure in antigenically diverse infectious agents

被引：225

作者：

Gupta, S ^{[1
]}

Ferguson, N ^{[1
]}

Anderson, R ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Wellcome Trust Ctr Epidemiol Infect Dis, Oxford OX1 3PS, England

来源：

SCIENCE | 1998年 / 280卷 / 5365期

基金：

英国惠康基金;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.280.5365.912

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The effects of selection by host immune responses on transmission dynamics was analyzed in a broad class of antigenically diverse pathogens. Strong selection can cause pathogen populations to stably segregate into discrete strains with nonoverlapping antigenic repertoires. However, over a wide range of intermediate levels of selection, strain structure is unstable, varying in a manner that is either cyclical or chaotic. These results have implications for the interpretation of longitudinal epidemiological data on strain or serotype abundance, design of surveillance strategies, and the assessment of multivalent vaccine trials.

引用

页码：912 / 915

页数：4

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