Predicting the development of photoperiod 'insensitive' winter wheats in south-central New South Wales

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of vernalisation on the field development of vernalisation responsive wheats in south-central New South Wales, and to develop equations with which to predict their timing of ear emergence in this region. To achieve this, a 'phasic development' approach was taken by considering relationships between temperature and photoperiod and the duration of the leaf, spikelet, and stem development phases in 3 photoperiod 'insensitive' vernalisation responsive wheat cultivars. The responsiveness to vernalisation of these cultivars covered much of the range that has been reported in wheat. This study was conducted at 3 sites and over 6 sowing times (17 field environments), covering the geographic and commercial range in sowing time for wheat grown in this region of Australia. An initial step in this study was to obtain measures of development duration that were independent of site and sowing date over our 17 field environments. Thus, appropriate photo-thermal units of time were sought using a photoperiod and vernalisation 'insensitive' control wheat. The appropriate base temperatures and photoperiods we found for these photo-thermal units were not entirely consistent with those found in previous studies. Phase durations of our vernalisation responsive wheat cultivars were measured in these units. Vernalisation was found to be the predominant factor determining duration of both the leaf and spikelet phases in our vernalisation responsive wheat cultivars. The relationship we found between accumulated vernalisation and the duration of the leaf phase was similar to the relationship found in an earlier study in a controlled environment. This relationship differed from those currently used in 'phasic development' models for wheat. There appeared to be some latitude in the range of vernalising temperatures that could be used to estimate vernalisation in our field environments. Duration of the stem phase was strongly influenced by photoperiod, and showed greatest complexity of control, to the extent that site-specific effects could not be removed from equations predicting the duration of this phase. Simplified regression equations appeared to predict time of ear emergence reasonably well over the range of environments considered in our study, with the exception of a few cultivar x sowing time combinations for which wheat would not be commercially sown in the region. The ability to predict time of ear emergence may allow plant breeders to evaluate development controls that might extend the range of environments over which winter wheats may be commercially sown in south-central New South Wales.