Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016-2030

被引：1505

作者：

Estes, Chris ^{[1
]}

Anstee, Quentin M. ^{[2
]}

Teresa Arias-Loste, Maria ^{[3
,4
]}

Bantel, Heike ^{[5
]}

Bellentani, Stefano ^{[6
]}

Caballeria, Joan ^{[7
,8
]}

Colombo, Massimo ^{[9
]}

Craxi, Antonio ^{[10
]}

Crespo, Javier ^{[11
]}

Day, Christopher P. ^{[2
]}

Eguchi, Yuichiro ^{[12
]}

Geier, Andreas ^{[13
]}

Kondili, Loreta A. ^{[14
]}

Kroy, Daniela C. ^{[15
]}

Lazarus, Jeffrey V. ^{[16
]}

Loomba, Rohit ^{[17
,18
]}

Manns, Michael P. ^{[5
]}

Marchesini, Giulio ^{[19
]}

Nakajima, Atsushi ^{[20
]}

Negro, Francesco ^{[21
,22
]}

Petta, Salvatore ^{[23
]}

Ratziu, Vlad ^{[24
,25
]}

Romero-Gomez, Manuel ^{[26
,27
]}

Sanyal, Arun ^{[28
]}

Schattenberg, Joern M. ^{[29
]}

Tacke, Frank ^{[15
]}

Tanaka, Junko ^{[30
]}

Trautwein, Christian ^{[15
]}

Wei, Lai ^{[31
,32
]}

Zeuzem, Stefan ^{[33
]}

Razavi, Homie ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] CDA, Lafayette, CO 80026 USA

[2] Newcastle Univ, Sch Med, Inst Cellular Med, Liver Res Grp, Framlington Pl, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England

[3] Marques Valdecilla Univ Hosp, Ctr Invest Biomed Red Enfermedades Hepat & Digest, Gastroenterol & Hepatol Dept, Santander, Spain

[4] Res Inst Marques Valdecilla IDIVAL, Infect Immun & Digest Pathol Grp, Santander, Spain

[5] Hannover Med Sch, Dept Gastroenterol Hepatol & Endocrinol, Hannover, Germany

[6] Clin Santa Chiara, Gastroenterol & Hepatol Serv, Locarno, Switzerland

[7] Inst Biomed Res August Pi & Sunyer IDIBAPS, Hosp Clin, Hepatol Unit, Barcelona, Spain

[8] Ctr Invest Biomed Red Enfermedades Hepat & Digest, Barcelona, Spain

[9] Clin & Res Ctr Humanitas, Ctr Translat Res Hepatol, Rozzano, Italy

[10] Univ Palermo, Dept Gastroenterol, Palermo, Italy

[11] Hosp Univ Marques Valdecilla, Inst Invest Valdecilla, Infect Immun & Digest Pathol Grp, Gastroenterol & Hepatol Dept,IDIVAL, Santander, Spain

[12] Saga Univ, Saga Univ Hosp, Liver Ctr, Saga, Japan

[13] Univ Wurzburg, Dept Med 2, Div Hepatol, Wurzburg, Germany

[14] Ist Super Sanita, Ctr Global Hlth, Rome, Italy

[15] RWTH Univ Hosp Aachen, Dept Med 3, Aachen, Germany

[16] Univ Barcelona, Hosp Clin, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain

[17] Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Med, NAFLD Res Ctr, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

[18] Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Med, Div Gastroenterol, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

[19] Alma Mater Univ, DIMEC, Unit Metab Dis & Clin Dietet, Bologna, Italy

[20] Yokohama City Univ, Grad Sch Med, Div Gastroenterol, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan

[21] Univ Hosp, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Rue Gabrielle Perret Gentil 4, CH-1211 Geneva 14, Switzerland

[22] Univ Hosp, Div Clin Pathol, Rue Gabrielle Perret Gentil 4, CH-1211 Geneva 14, Switzerland

[23] Univ Palermo, DiBiMIS, Sect Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Palermo, Italy

[24] Grp Hosp Pitie Salpetriere, AP HP, Dept Hepatol, Paris, France

[25] Univ Paris 06, INSERM, UMR 938, Paris, France

[26] Virgen Rocio Univ Hosp, Unit Clin Management Digest Dis, Seville, Spain

[27] Virgen Rocio Univ Hosp, CIBERehd, Seville, Spain

[28] Virginia Commonwealth Univ, Med Ctr, Richmond, VA USA

[29] Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Univ Med Ctr, Dept Med 1, Mainz, Germany

[30] Hiroshima Univ, Grad Sch Biomed & Hlth Sci, Dept Epidemiol Infect Dis Control & Prevent, Hiroshima, Japan

[31] Peking Univ, Peoples Hosp, Inst Hepatol, Beijing, Peoples R China

[32] Key Lab Hepatitis C & Immunotherapy Liver Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China

[33] JW Goethe Univ Hosp, Frankfurt, Germany

来源：

JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY | 2018年 / 69卷 / 04期

关键词：

NONALCOHOLIC FATTY LIVER; LONG-TERM OUTCOMES; HEPATOCELLULAR-CARCINOMA; CLINICAL CHARACTERISTICS; AMERICAN ASSOCIATION; NATURAL-HISTORY; SCORING SYSTEM; RISK-FACTORS; STEATOHEPATITIS; PREVALENCE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jhep.2018.05.036

中图分类号：

R57 [消化系及腹部疾病];

学科分类号：

摘要：

Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/ increasing population. Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years. (C) 2018 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V.

引用

页码：896 / 904

页数：9

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