The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 2

被引：106

作者：

Hatzakis, A. ^{[1
]}

Chulanov, V. ^{[2
]}

Gadano, A. C. ^{[3
]}

Bergin, C. ^{[4
,5
]}

Ben-Ari, Z. ^{[6
,7
]}

Mossong, J. ^{[8
]}

Schreter, I. ^{[9
]}

Baatarkhuu, O. ^{[10
]}

Acharya, S. ^{[11
]}

Aho, I. ^{[12
]}

Anand, A. C. ^{[13
]}

Andersson, M. I. ^{[14
]}

Arendt, V. ^{[15
,16
]}

Arkkila, P. ^{[17
]}

Barclay, K. ^{[18
]}

Bessone, F. ^{[19
]}

Blach, S. ^{[20
]}

Blokhina, N. ^{[21
]}

Brunton, C. R. ^{[22
]}

Choudhuri, G. ^{[23
]}

Cisneros, L. ^{[24
]}

Croes, E. A. ^{[25
]}

Dahgwahdorj, Y. A. ^{[26
]}

Dalgard, O. ^{[27
]}

Daruich, J. R. ^{[28
]}

Dashdorj, N. R. ^{[29
]}

Davaadorj, D. ^{[30
]}

de Knegt, R. J. ^{[31
]}

de Vree, M. ^{[32
]}

Estes, C. ^{[20
]}

Flisiak, R. ^{[33
]}

Gane, E. ^{[34
]}

Gower, E. ^{[20
]}

Halota, W. ^{[35
]}

Henderson, C. ^{[36
]}

Hoffmann, P. ^{[37
]}

Hornell, J. ^{[18
]}

Houlihan, D. ^{[38
]}

Hrusovsky, S. ^{[39
,40
]}

Jarcuska, P. ^{[41
]}

Kershenobich, D. ^{[42
]}

Kostrzewska, K. ^{[43
]}

Kristian, P. ^{[9
]}

Leshno, M. ^{[44
]}

Lurie, Y. ^{[45
]}

Mahomed, A. ^{[46
]}

Mamonova, N. ^{[47
]}

Mendez-Sanchez, N. ^{[48
]}

Norris, S. ^{[4
]}

Nurmukhametova, E. ^{[21
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Athens, Sch Med, Dept Hyg Epidemiol & Med Stat, GR-11527 Athens, Greece

[2] Minist Publ Hlth Russia, Cent Res Inst Epidemiol, Reference Ctr Viral Hepatitis, Moscow, Russia

[3] Italian Hosp Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina

[4] St James Hosp, Dublin 8, Ireland

[5] Trinity Coll Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

[6] Chaim Sheba Med Ctr, Liver Dis Ctr, IL-52621 Tel Hashomer, Israel

[7] Tel Aviv Univ, Sackler Sch Med, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel

[8] Lab Natl Sante, Dudelange, Luxembourg

[9] Safarik Univ, Fac Med, Dept Infectol & Travel Med, Kosice, Slovakia

[10] Mongolian Natl Univ Med Sci, Dept Infect Dis, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

[11] All India Inst Med Sci, Dept Gastroenterol, New Delhi, India

[12] Univ Helsinki, Cent Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Helsinki, Finland

[13] Indraprastha Apollo Hosp, Indian Natl Assoc Study Liver, HCV Task Force, New Delhi, India

[14] Univ Stellenbosch, Fac Hlth Sci, Dept Pathol, Div Med Virol, ZA-7600 Stellenbosch, South Africa

[15] Ctr Hosp Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg

[16] Ctr Rech Publ Sante, Strassen, Luxembourg

[17] Univ Helsinki, Cent Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol, Helsinki, Finland

[18] Hepatitis Fdn New Zealand, Whakatane, New Zealand

[19] Univ Nacl Rosario, Sch Med, RA-2000 Rosario, Argentina

[20] CDA, Louisville, CO USA

[21] Hosp Infect Dis 1, Moscow, Russia

[22] Canterbury Dist Hlth Board, Christchurch, New Zealand

[23] Fortis Mem Res Inst, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatobiliary Sci, Gurgaon, Haryana, India

[24] UMAE 25 Inst Mexicano Seguro Social, Monterrey, NL, Mexico

[25] Trimbos Inst, Utrecht, Netherlands

[26] Mongolian Natl Univ Med Sci, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

[27] Akershus Univ Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Oslo, Norway

[28] Univ Buenos Aires, Hosp Clin San Martin, Secc Hepatol, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina

[29] Onom Fdn, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

[30] Mongolian Natl Univ Med Sci, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

[31] Erasmus MC Univ, Med Ctr, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Rotterdam, Netherlands

[32] Univ Groningen, Univ Med Ctr Groningen, NL-9713 AV Groningen, Netherlands

[33] Med Univ Bialystok, Dept Infect Dis & Hepatol, Bialystok, Poland

[34] Auckland Hosp Clin Studies Unit, Auckland, New Zealand

[35] CMUMK Bydgoszcz, Dept Infect Dis & Hepatol, Bydgoszcz, Poland

[36] New Zealand Needle Exchange Programme, Christchurch, New Zealand

[37] Hlth Directorate, Luxembourg, Luxembourg

[38] St Vincents Univ Hosp, Dublin 4, Ireland

[39] SZU, Dept Internal Med 1, Bratislava, Slovakia

[40] Fac Med, Clin Infect Dis, Kosice, Slovakia

[41] Safarik Univ, Fac Med, Dept Internal Med 1, Kosice, Slovakia

[42] Inst Nacl Ciencias Med & Nutr Salvador Zubiran, Tlalpan, Mexico

[43] HTA Consulting, Krakow, Poland

[44] Tel Aviv Univ, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel

[45] Shaarey Zedek Med Ctr, Liver Unit, Jerusalem, Israel

[46] Univ Witwatersrand, Dept Internal Med, Johannesburg, South Africa

[47] Clin Diagnost & Res Ctr, Moscow, Russia

[48] Medica Sur Clin & Fdn, Liver Res Unit, Mexico City, DF, Mexico

[49] Mongolian Acad Med Sci, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

[50] Gastroenterol & Hepatol Ctr, Bratislava, Slovakia

来源：

JOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS | 2015年 / 22卷

关键词：

diagnosis; disease burden; epidemiology; HCV; hepatitis C; incidence; mortality; prevalence; treatment; RISK-FACTORS; HEPATOCELLULAR-CARCINOMA; COST-EFFECTIVENESS; FOLLOW-UP; FIBROSIS PROGRESSION; LONG-TERM; PREVALENCE; MORTALITY; COHORT; RIBAVIRIN;

D O I：

10.1111/jvh.12351

中图分类号：

R57 [消化系及腹部疾病];

学科分类号：

100201 [内科学];

摘要：

Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

引用

页码：26 / 45

页数：20

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