Natural gas consumption and climate: A comprehensive set of predictive state-level models for the United States

被引:21
作者
Sailor, DJ
Rosen, JN
Munoz, JR
机构
[1] Dept. of Mech. Eng. Tulane Univ., New Orleans
关键词
D O I
10.1016/S0360-5442(97)00073-X
中图分类号
O414.1 [热力学];
学科分类号
摘要
Separate models correlating natural gas (NG) consumption to climate have been developed for the residential and commercial sectors of the 50 U.S. states. The models relate a population-weighted average temperature to state per capita NG consumption on a monthly basis. The majority of the models have Pearson correlation coefficients greater than 0.90 supporting the use of temperature as the sole independent parameter. The sensitivities of the models to a 1 degrees C increase in temperature, are compared for each state and the monthly sensitivity to climate integrated over the entire U.S. is investigated for a range of temperature perturbations. The predicted impact of a 1 degrees C increase in mean monthly temperature on U.S. consumption is an 8.1% decrease in the residential sector and a 5.9% decrease in the commercial sector. In terms of the net consumption normalized over the study period (1984-1993) this corresponds to a 111.8 TWh decrease in the residential sector and a 47.0 TWh decrease in the commercial sector. The largest change for a single month occurs in January when consumption would decrease 19.7 TWh in the residential sector and 7.4 TWh in the commercial sector. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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页码:91 / 103
页数:13
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