Do consensus indications for resection in branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm predict malignancy? A study of 147 patients

Background and aims: Recent consensus guidelines suggest that presence of >= 1 of the following is an indication for resection (IR) of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN-Br): cyst-related symptoms, main pancreatic duct diameter >= 10 mm, cyst size >= 30 mm, intramural nodules, or cyst fluid cytology suspicious/positive for malignancy. Among a cohort of patients with IPMN-Br we determined if the consensus IR (CIR), presence of multifocal IPMN-Br, or growth of cyst size on follow-up predict malignancy. Methods: We identified 147 patients with IPMN-Br of whom 66 underwent surgical resection at diagnosis and 81 were followed conservatively, of whom 11 were resected during follow-up. Clinical, imaging, histological, and cyst fluid characteristics from all 147 patients with IPMN-Br were obtained from clinical records and/or by contacting the patients. In all cases, presence of CIR at baseline and during follow-up (N = 66), presence of multifocal cysts (N = 57), and increase in cyst size (N = 38) were noted. Results: Among the 77 resected IPMN-Brs, at initial evaluation 61 had at least one CIR and 16 had none. Malignancy was present in 9/61 (15%) with CIR and 0/16 without IR (P = 0.1). When presence of any one of the CIR was taken as an indicator of malignancy, the CIR had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 100%, 23%, 14%, and 100%, respectively. Prevalence of malignancy in those with single versus multifocal IPMN-Br was similar (13% vs 11%). No patient has developed malignancy after a median follow-up of 15 months. So far, none of the 38 patients with increase in cyst size on follow-up has developed malignancy related symptoms. Conclusions: Suggested consensus indications for resection identify all patients with malignancy; however, their specificity is low. In the short term it would be safe to follow patients without these features.