Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand with an Application to Korea

被引：56

作者：

Chang, Yoosoon ^{[1
]}

Kim, Chang Sik ^{[2
]}

Miller, J. Isaac ^{[3
]}

Park, Joon Y. ^{[1
,2
]}

Park, Sungkeun ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Indiana Univ, Dept Econ, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA

[2] Sungkyunkwan Univ, Dept Econ, Seoul, South Korea

[3] Univ Missouri, Dept Econ, Columbia, MO 65211 USA

[4] Korea Inst Ind Econ & Trade, Seoul, South Korea

来源：

ENERGY ECONOMICS | 2014年 / 46卷

关键词：

Electricity demand; Income elasticity of demand; Output elasticity of conditional factor demand; Cointegration; Time-varying coefficients; ENERGY DEMAND; INTERFUEL SUBSTITUTION; PRICE ELASTICITY; RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY; COINTEGRATING REGRESSIONS; INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE; ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT; TEMPERATURE; INDUSTRIAL; SALES;

D O I：

10.1016/j.eneco.2014.10.003

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

020101 [政治经济学];

摘要：

It is widely accepted that long-run elasticities of demand for electricity are not stable over time. We model long-run sectoral electricity demand using a time-varying cointegrating vector. Specifically, the coefficient on income (residential sector) or output (commercial and industrial sectors) is allowed to follow a smooth semiparametric function of time, providing a flexible specification that allows more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than either fixed or discretely changing regression coefficients. We fit the model to Korean data over 1995:01-2012:12 for the residential sector and 1985:01-2012:12 for the commercial and industrial sectors. The rapid development of Korea over this period provides a very clear case for allowing the coefficient on income/output to vary over time, but the essential modeling strategy is widely applicable. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：334 / 347

页数：14

共 55 条

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Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: Asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change [J].