The use of a climate-type classification for assessing climate change effects in Europe from an ensemble of nine regional climate models

Making use of the Kbppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification, we have found that a set of nine high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) are fairly capable of reproducing the current climate in Europe. The percentage of grid-point to grid-point coincidences between climate subtypes based on the control simulations and those of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) climatology varied between 73 and 82%. The best agreement with the CRU climatology corresponds to the RCM "ensemble mean". The K-T classification was then used to elucidate scenarios of climate change for 2071-2100 under the SIZES A2 emission scenario. The percentage of land grid-points with unchanged K-T subtypes ranged from 41 to 49%, while those with a shift from the current climate subtypes towards warmer or drier ones ranged from 51 to 59%. As a first approximation, one may assume that in regions with a shift of two or more climate subtypes, ecosystems might be at risk. Excluding northern Scandinavia, such regions were projected to cover about 12% of the European land area.