The dynamics of party identification in federal systems: The Canadian case

Theory: Decentralized federal systems provide voters with opportunities to develop different national and subnational party identifications. According to an evaluative theory of party identification, voters use their storehouse of party performance judgments at a given level, together with newly acquired information at both levels, when revising their partisan attachments at either one. Hypothesis: Other-level performance evaluations influence the dynamics of party identification at a particular level of the federal system. Methods: A cross-level effects partial adjustment model of party identification is tested using data from five national inter-election panel surveys conducted in Canada between 1974 and 1993. Models are estimated using a two-stage ordered probit procedure. Results: Inconsistency and instability are ongoing and related features of party identification. Contemporaneous issue and leader evaluations and provincial party identification have properly signed and statistically significant effects on time t federal party identification.