Predicted response of the calving glacier Svartisheibreen, Norway, and outbursts from it, to future changes in climate and lake level

The Svartisheibreen glacier in northern Norway has been investigated since 1988 in connection with a proposed hydropower scheme. The scheme includes regulation of the lake into which the glacier calves. A one-dimensional flow model has been used to estimate the response of the glacier to changes in mass balance and lake level. The model predicts that a net balance, excluding calving, of 0 m a(-1) will cause the glacier to retreat approximately 400 m over 50 years if lake level is maintained at 774 m a.s.l., but that the glacier front will not move significantly if lake level is lowered to 720 m a.s.l. In 1989 and 1991, lake outbursts occurred beneath the glacier. The 1991 outburst was monitored, and culminated in a peak discharge of only 3.5 m(3) s(-1), much less than for other reported outbursts. This outburst can be explained in a model in which the outburst tunnel passes over a subglacial threshold approximately 70 m behind the 1991 calving front. The model shows that outbursts will probably increase dramatically in size if the front retreats beyond this threshold.