BSE in Northern Ireland: epidemiological patterns past, present and future

被引：16

作者：

Ferguson, NM ^{[1
]}

Ghani, AC ^{[1
]}

Donnelly, CA ^{[1
]}

Denny, GO ^{[1
]}

Anderson, RM ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Wellcome Trust Ctr Epidemiol Infect Dis, Oxford OX1 3PS, England

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES | 1998年 / 265卷 / 1396期

基金：

英国惠康基金;

关键词：

BSE; epidemiology; clustering; backcalculation; mathematical modelling;

D O I：

10.1098/rspb.1998.0329

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

By 30 January 1998, there had been 170 259 confirmed cases of BSE in Great Britain (GB), 1766 confirmed cases in Northern Ireland (NI) (2 January 1998), and 276 confirmed cases in the Republic of Ireland (31 January 1998). Analysis of the epidemiological patterns in the NI epidemic reveals significant clustering of cases in herds and counties. The observed clustering of cases within herds results in lower per capita incidence of BSE in previously unaffected herds, providing support for the introduction of a certified herd scheme in NI. By fitting a backcalculation model to the case data, we can estimate the number of animals infected with the aetiological agent of BSE and project the number of future cases. We predict that the epidemic will decline rapidly, with approximately 99 cases (95% confidence interval: 30, 504) occurring in the five year period 1997-2001.

引用

页码：545 / 554

页数：10

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