Geographical distributions of temperature change for scenarios of greenhouse gas and sulfur dioxide emissions

被引:41
作者
Schlesinger, ME
Malyshev, S
Rozanov, EV
Yang, FL
Andronova, NG
De Vries, B
Grübler, A
Jiang, KJ
Masui, T
Morita, T
Penner, J
Pepper, W
Sankovski, A
Zhang, Y
机构
[1] Climate Research Group, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Univ. Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801
[2] Bureau for Environmental Assessment, Natl. Inst. Pub. Hlth. the Environ., 3720 BA Bilthoven
[3] Intl. Inst. for Appl. Syst. Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361
[4] Natl. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305
[5] Dept. Atmosph., Oceanic Space Sci., University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143
[6] ICF Kaiser International, Washington, DC 20006, 1850 K Street, NW
[7] Univ. Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL 61801
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
D O I
10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00114-6
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Time-dependent geographical distributions of surface-air temperature change relative to year 2000 are constructed for four scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, and are compared to the IS92a scenario. The four new scenarios have been developed by four different modeling teams. The four scenarios are noninterventionist, in that they do not include abatement of GHG emissions for the purpose of climate-change mitigation. The rime evolution of the changes in global-mean surface-air temperature and sea level are calculated for each scenario by our energy-balance-climate/upwelling-diffusion-model. The temperature changes individually and jointly for the radiative forcing by the GHGs and by the sulfate aerosol, which is formed in the atmosphere from the emitted SO2. These GHG- and SO2-induced global-mean temperature changes are used to scale in time the geographical distributions of surface-air temperature simulated by our University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) atmospheric-general-circulation/mixed-layer-ocean model, respectively for a doubling of the CO2 amount and for a 10-fold increase in present-day SO2 emission-the latter from the entire earth as well as individually from Europe, Siberia, North Africa, Asia, North America.
引用
收藏
页码:167 / 193
页数:27
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