Apolipoprotein A, fibrinogen, age, and history of stroke are predictors of death in dialysed diabetic patients: a prospective study in 412 subjects

Background. Diabetic patients with end-stage renal failure (ESRD) have a high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The underlying mechanisms are not completely elucidated. The aim of our study was to define predictors of death in diabetic patients with endstage renal disease. Patients and methods, We performed a prospective study in 35 dialysis centres in Germany between 1985 and 1994. To evaluate predictors and risk factors in this population we examined 412 diabetic patients at the time of admission to dialysis treatment (peritoneal dialysis (PD) or haemodialysis (HD)). Classification of the type of diabetes was done according the criteria of the National Diabetes Data Group [1,2]. Items assessed at the time of admission were coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral occlusive disease (POD), and stroke. CAD was defined as a history of myocardial infarction with the corresponding changes in the ECG or luminal narrowing by more than 50% in at least one coronary artery upon coronarangiography; POD was defined as claudication and/or brachial-tibial ratio (BTR) less than 0.9 or a history of amputation. Assessment of the nutritional state comprised body mass index, skinfold thickness of the upper arm and lateral thorax area, and urea concentration. Cholesterol, HDL, LDL, apolipoprotein A (ApoA-I) and B (ApoB), triglycerides, lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)), and fibrinogen were measured. As an index of disturbed cardiac innervation beat-to-beat variation was measured. Outcome measurements were causes of death (i.e. cardiac and non-cardiac) and time of survival. Results, One hundred and eighty of 412 (44%) patients died during the observation period. Patients who died were older (61 +/- 12 versus 53 +/- 15 years P<0.0001), had lower skin fold thickness (13.1 +/- 6.0 versus 15.1 +/- 7.3 mm P < 0.04), lower ApoA-I (100 +/- 35 versus 111 +/- 32 mg/dl P<0.005) and higher fibrinogen (515 +/- 146 versus 451 +/- 155 mg/dl P<0.02). Type II diabetic patients had a lower mean survival time than type I (34 versus 66 months P<0.0006). The mode of renal replacement therapy (PD or HD) had no adverse effect on survival time. Survivors less frequently had a history of CAD, POD and stroke than non-survivors. In multivariate analysis ApoA-I, fibrinogen, age and stroke were independent predictors of cardiac and noncardiac death in diabetic patients with end-stage renal failure. Lipid values and nutritional state did not independently predict the overall and cardiovascular mortality. Conclusion, This study in dialysed diabetic patients identifies several predictors of death, some of which are susceptible to intervention.